The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region is projected to grow at a slower pace by 3.8 percent this year, and within the 3.5-3.7 percent range from 2020 until the medium term, depending largely on the resolution of trade conflicts and reduced policy uncertainty.

The newest APEC Regional Trends Analysis, or ARTA, said the projected growth was notably lower than its 4.1-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2018, while the rest of the world slowed down to 2.8 percent.

The report said the upside potential for growth could come from the quick and positive resolution of trade tensions.

“The ongoing pause in tariff measures as the US and China go back to the negotiating table is a welcome development,” it noted. “A trade deal, achieved in a quick and orderly manner, should significantly reduce policy uncertainty and lead to a turnaround in trade and investment, potentially powering another round of global economic
momentum.”

The ARTA report pointed out a greater-than-expected economic slowdown in China could also impact on global growth and APEC growth in particular, with repercussions to its partner economies via such channels as trade, investment and tourism.

“Moreover, economic and financial conditions prevailing in other major engines of global growth such as the US and the Eurozone could affect global demand,” it added.

It further underscored the need for APEC to sustain economic growth amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

This entails the “delicate balancing act” of implementing measures to support continued expansion while ensuring that growth remains sustainable and inclusive, the report said.